A recent study conducted by the British University of Leeds has shed light on the potential impact of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa. The study, titled “Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology,” predicts a decrease in areas suitable for malaria transmission starting from 2025. This shift is attributed to the hot and dry conditions expected to be brought about by climate change.
Published in the journal Science on Thursday (May 9), the study highlights the importance of considering hydrology in malaria transmission modeling. Co-author of the study, Professor Simon Gosling, emphasizes that while the decrease in malaria transmission areas is a positive outcome, it comes at a cost. Reduced water availability could lead to a greater risk of another significant disease, dengue.
Unlike previous assessments that focused solely on surface water using precipitation, the new study utilized a weighted ensemble of global hydrological and climate models. This approach allowed for a more comprehensive estimation of present and future areas of hydroclimatic suitability for malaria transmission.
The implications of this research are significant for malaria control strategies in Africa. The researchers believe that further advances in their modeling could provide even finer details of waterbody dynamics, which could inform national malaria control strategies.
The World Health Organization (WHO) reported that malaria deaths peaked at 608,000 in 2022, with Africa accounting for 95% of deaths globally. The malaria parasite is primarily transmitted to people via infected mosquitoes. In recent years, extreme rainfall and floods in some African countries have contributed to stagnant waters that serve as breeding grounds for mosquitoes.
In 2023, the WHO’s World Malaria Report included a chapter on the link between malaria and climate change for the first time, underscoring the significance of climate change as a potential risk multiplier for the disease.
